The Taiwan Issue

China's UN Ambassador Wang Guangya on Wednesday rejected Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian's second letter on Taiwan's membership bid to the United Nations as another "petty trick" by an "international troublemaker."

"As is widely known, there is but one China in the world. Taiwan is an inalienable part of the Chinese territory, and the government of the People's Republic of China is the sole legitimate government representing the whole of China," Wang said.

If pressed, this is one Taiwan will likely lose. The US and other western countries are not likely to throw in the kind of chips necessary to maintain Taiwan's independence from China. That would be military chips.

If Taiwan would lie low for a while and quit antagonizing China, there is a good chance that China will leave Taiwan alone for now. China has its hands full managing what it does currently control, and while it won't tolerate a great deal of separatist talk from Taiwan, I doubt it wants the headaches of managing Taiwan. With the Olympics and the World Expo on the horizon, China is unlikely to take any aggressive action toward Taiwan unless backed into a corner. Taiwan doesn't have the international support or the bargaining chips to stir up trouble.

With any luck between now and 2010, there will be a leadership shift and an acknowledgement from China that leaving Taiwan alone in the short run is the prudent move. And by then, the US and other western countries (by western countries I mean, of course, France given its importance on the world stage) will be winding up in the middle east and better able to focus on other international events.